Analyzing Asymmetry in Exchange Rates of Arctic Nations in Response to Oil Price Shocks
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT This study introduces a novel approach by utilising both structural VAR and nonlinear ARDL methods to investigate the short‐ and long‐term asymmetric effects of different oil shocks—oil supply, aggregate demand and oil‐specific demand shocks—on the exchange rates of six Arctic nations: Canada, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Russia and Sweden, over the period from January 1994 to December 2022. Our findings indicate that oil‐specific demand shocks have a substantial impact on exchange rates in both the short‐ and long‐term, while oil supply and aggregate demand shocks have minimal effects on currency fluctuations. Importantly, our analysis reveals new evidence of long‐term asymmetry in the influence of oil shocks on exchange rates in these Arctic economies, with asymmetric effects mainly manifesting over the long‐term. Thus, our research enriches our understanding of the distinct impacts of different oil price shocks on exchange rates, especially within the relatively unexplored context of Arctic economies.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it