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Record W4406200301 · doi:10.1016/j.numecd.2025.103861

Machine learning techniques to predict diabetic ketoacidosis and HbA1c above 7% among individuals with type 1 diabetes — A large multi-centre study in Australia and New Zealand

2025· article· en· W4406200301 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Arul Earnest, Timothy W. Jones, Melissa Chee, D. Jane Holmes–Walker

Bibliographic record

VenueNutrition Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldBiochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
TopicDiabetes and associated disorders
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersMonash UniversityJuvenile Diabetes Research Foundation Canada
KeywordsDiabetic ketoacidosisType 2 diabetesDiabetes mellitusMedicineKetoacidosisType 1 diabetesInternal medicineEndocrinology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Type 1 diabetes and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) have a significant impact on individuals and society across a wide spectrum. Our objective was to utilize machine learning techniques to predict DKA and HbA1c>7 %. METHODS AND RESULTS: Nine different models were implemented and model performance evaluated via the Area under the Curve (AUC). These models were applied to a large multi-centre dataset of 13761 type 1 diabetes individuals prospectively recruited from Australia and New Zealand. Predictive features included a number of clinical demographic and socio-economic measures collected at previous visits. In our study, 2.9 % reported at least one episode of DKA since their last clinic visit. A number of features were significantly associated with DKA. Our results showed that Deep Learning (DL) model performed well in predicting DKA with an AUC of 0.887. The DL also provided the lowest classification error rate of 0.9 %, highest sensitivity of 99.9 % and F-measure of 99.6 %. As for HbA1c >7 %, the optimal Support Vector Machine provided a good AUC of 0.884. CONCLUSION: Machine learning models can be effectively implemented on real-life large clinical datasets and they perform well in terms of identifying individuals with type 1 diabetes at risk of adverse outcomes.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.046
Threshold uncertainty score0.813

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.006
GPT teacher head0.227
Teacher spread0.221 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations5
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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