Spatio-temporal behaviour of SIR models with cross-diffusion and vital dynamics
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Contemporary epidemiological models often involve spatial variation, providing an avenue to investigate the averaged dynamics of individual movements. In this work, we extend a recent model by Vaziry, Kolokolnikov, and Kevrekidis [Royal Society Open Science 9 (10), 2022] that included, in both infected and susceptible population dynamics equations, a cross-diffusion term with the second spatial derivative of the infected population density. Diffusion terms of this type occur, for example, in the Keller–Siegel chemotaxis model. The presented model corresponds to local orderly commute of susceptible and infected individuals and is shown to arise in two dimensions as a limit of a discrete process. The present contribution identifies and studies specific features of the new model’s dynamics, including various types of infection waves and buffer zones protected from the infection. The model with vital dynamics additionally exhibits complex spatio-temporal behaviour that involves the generation of quasiperiodic infection waves and emergence of transient strongly heterogeneous patterns.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it