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Record W4406228704 · doi:10.30965/20526512-bja10021

The Creation of a Dictator: The Path to the Lukashenka Presidency in Belarus

2025· article· en· W4406228704 on OpenAlexaff
David R. Marples

Bibliographic record

VenueThe Journal of Belarusian Studies · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicEastern European Communism and Reforms
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Alberta
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDictatorPresidencyPoliticsPolitical sciencePolitical economySociologyLaw

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract The paper examines the political situation in Belarus in the early 1990s and specifically the emergence of Aliaksandr Lukashenka as a leading actor. It asks the question: could the rise of Lukashenka, a future dictator, have been prevented? It argues that there were a number of occasions when a failure to act or unite prevented any sustained attempts to prevent Lukashenka from becoming Belarus’ first and only president. Ironically, a group of young politicians perceived Lukashenka as someone who could be exploited for their own political goals. Ultimately, they paid the price by being physically eliminated or targeted as political rivals. Others backed Lukashenka but without political ambitions and made up his most prominent coterie members.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.006
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesScience and technology studies
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Qualitative · Consensus signal: Qualitative
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.281
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0060.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0020.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.022
GPT teacher head0.346
Teacher spread0.324 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designQualitative
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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