A multiscale model for multivariate time series forecasting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Transformer based models for time-series forecasting have shown promising performance and during the past few years different Transformer variants have been proposed in time-series forecasting domain. However, most of the existing methods, mainly represent the time-series from a single scale, making it challenging to capture various time granularities or ignore inter-series correlations between the series which might lead to inaccurate forecasts. In this paper, we address the above mentioned shortcomings and propose a Transformer based model which integrates multi-scale patch-wise temporal modeling and channel-wise representation. In the multi-scale temporal part, the input time-series is divided into patches of different resolutions to capture temporal correlations associated with various scales. The channel-wise encoder which comes after the temporal encoder, models the relations among the input series to capture the intricate interactions between them. In our framework, we further design a multi-step linear decoder to generate the final predictions for the purpose of reducing over-fitting and noise effects. Extensive experiments on seven real world datasets indicate that our model (MultiPatchFormer) achieves state-of-the-art results by surpassing other current baseline models in terms of error metrics and shows stronger generalizability.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".