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Record W4406292877 · doi:10.1101/2025.01.08.25320217

Connectivity between long-term care homes and subsequent SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

2025· preprint· en· W4406292877 on OpenAlexafffundabout
Yiqing Xia, Huiting Ma, Kamil Malikov, Sharon E. Straus, Christine Fahim, Gary Moloney, Qing Huang, Jamie M. Boyd, Irene Zarra‐Ferro, Jaimie Johns, Kamran Khan, Jaydeep Mistry, Linwei Wang, Adrienne K. Chan, Stefan Baral, Mathieu Maheu‐Giroux, Sharmistha Mishra

Bibliographic record

VenuemedRxiv · 2025
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldHealth Professions
TopicGeriatric Care and Nursing Homes
Canadian institutionsPublic Health OntarioSunnybrook Health Science CentreUniversity of TorontoSt. Michael's HospitalBlueDot (Canada)Ministry of Health and Long Term CareMcGill University
FundersCanadian Institutes of Health ResearchPublic Health AgencyPublic Health Agency of Canada
KeywordsOutbreakCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Term (time)Long-term care2019-20 coronavirus outbreakMedicineGeographyVirologyNursingInfectious disease (medical specialty)Disease

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Objectives To describe the relationship between individual workers employed at more than one LTCH (inter-LTCH connectivity) across long-term care homes (LTCH) and SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. Design A retrospective cohort study using long-term care home surveillance and mobile geolocation data. Setting Using data observed between February 26 th , 2020, and August 31 st , 2020, from Ontario, the province where close to one-third of the Canada’s SARS-CoV-2 cases among long-term care homes residents were reported. Participants We included all 179 LTCH in the Greater Toronto Area (population 6.7 million, where close to 50% of Ontario population resides). Exposures The main exposure of interest was the inter-LTCH connectivity, generated from geographic position system location data procured across apps on different platforms. Main outcomes and measures Three outcomes were examined: 1) at least one SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis among residents, 2) cumulative cases among residents in each facility, and 3) time to first outbreak. Results The median degree of connectivity for LTCH that experienced an outbreak (59%; 106/179) was 1.2 times the degree of those without an outbreak (6 compared to 5). LTCH with higher inter-LTCH connectivity also had larger numbers of residents and beds, and were more likely to have for-profit ownership. After adjusting for facility-level and neighbourhood-level factors, every additional connection to another LTCH increased the odds of an outbreak in the respective LTCH by 8% (adjusted odds ratio=1.08, 90% credible interval [CrI]: 1.02-1.09). Inter-LTCH connectivity was also associated with higher risk of earlier occurrence of a first SARS-CoV-2 case (adjusted hazard ratio=1.05, 90%CrI: 1.02-1.09), but not with outbreak size. Conclusions and Relevance Staff cohorting was associated with reduced importation risk of SARS-CoV-2 cases into LTCH. However, findings suggest that once importation has occurred, other facility-level factors including facility infrastructure and staff benefits are more important in shaping outbreak size. Implementing these structural strategies to meet the LTCH workers and residents’ needs are pivotal to prevent and manage future respiratory virus outbreaks. Key points Question Were movement of long-term care homes (LTCH) workers between facilities (staff connectivity) associated with the risk, size, and timing of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in these facilities during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finding After adjusting for facility-level and neighbourhood-level factors, a higher degree of staff connectivity between LTCH was associated with a greater risk of outbreaks (2.2-fold the risk of a LTCH connected with 10 more other LTCHs) and a higher risk of experiencing an earlier outbreak (1.7-fold the hazard with 10 more staff connections with other LTCH). However, we did not observe an association between connectivity and the size of outbreaks. Meaning “One-site” strategy to cohort staff by facility and minimizing movement may reduce risk of pathogen importation. However, structural strategies (e.g. improve facility design and infrastructure) to reduce nosocomial transmission within these facilities remain pivotal to prevent and manage future respiratory virus outbreaks.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.149
Threshold uncertainty score0.296

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.069
GPT teacher head0.407
Teacher spread0.338 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes3
Has abstractyes

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