Holistic Assessment of Social, Environmental and Economic Impacts of Pipe Breaks: The Case Study of Vancouver
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper presents a holistic assessment framework for the impacts of water distribution pipe breaks to promote environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities. This framework considers social, environmental, and economic vulnerabilities as well as probabilities associated with pipe failure. The integration of these features provides a comprehensive approach to understanding infrastructure risks. Taking the city of Vancouver as a case study, the social vulnerability index (SVI) is obtained following the application of a cross-correlation matrix and principal component analysis (PCA) to identify the most influential among 33 selected variables from the 2021 census of the Canadian population. The Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) is evaluated by considering the park and floodplain areas. The Economic Vulnerability Index (ECI) is derived from the replacement cost of pipes. These indices offer valuable insights into the spatial distribution of vulnerabilities (consequences) across urban areas. Subsequently, the Consequence of Failure (COF) is computed by aggregating the three vulnerabilities with equal weights. Pipe probability of failure (POF) is evaluated by a Weibull model calibrated on real break data as a function of pipe age. This approach enables a dynamic evaluation of pipe deterioration over time. Risk is finally assessed by combining COF and POF for prioritizing pipe replacement and rehabilitation, with the final objective of mitigating the adverse impacts of infrastructure failure. The findings show the significant impact of ethnicity, socioeconomic indices, and education on the social vulnerability index. Moreover, the areas close to English Bay and Fraser River are more environmentally vulnerable. The pipes with high economic vulnerability are primarily concrete pipes, due to their expensive replacement costs. Finally, the risk framework resulting from the vulnerabilities and pipe break probabilities is used to rank the Vancouver City water distribution network pipes. This ranking system highlights critical areas requiring different levels of attention for infrastructure improvements. All the pipes and corresponding risks are illustrated in Vancouver maps, highlighting that the pipes associated with a very high level of risk are mostly in the south and north of Vancouver.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".