Rising temperatures favour parasite virulence and parallel molecular evolution following a host jump
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change is facilitating the poleward emergence of parasites, increasing the risk of jumping into new animal species, including humans. Whether more virulent or transmissible variants will spread during these climate-driven outbreaks is unclear. We experimentally evolved a wild parasitic bacterium, across the thermal range (20-30°C) and extremes (35°C) of Cape Verde - the site of field collection - in a novel, temperate animal host. At the parasite's typical warm environmental temperature, we found that virulence escalated across evolutionary time. Parasites evolved at hot temperatures, towards the limit of host-parasite survival, displayed a 'cryptic' virulence boost, deadlier once infecting animals at cooler temperatures. Patterns of molecular evolution were constrained to parallel changes in fewer loci at extreme temperatures. Our findings suggest that rising temperatures will leave predictable phenotypic and genomic signatures on evolving parasites as they emerge with climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".