Predicting Robotic Hysterectomy Incision Time: Optimizing Surgical Scheduling with Machine Learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Operating rooms (ORs) are critical for hospital revenue and cost management, with utilization efficiency directly affecting financial outcomes. Traditional surgical scheduling often results in suboptimal OR use. We aim to build a machine learning (ML) model to predict incision times for robotic-assisted hysterectomies, enhancing scheduling accuracy and hospital finances. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted using data from robotic-assisted hysterectomy cases performed between January 2017 and April 2021 across 3 hospitals within a large academic health system. Cases were filtered for surgeries performed by high-volume surgeons and those with an incision time of under 3 hours (n = 2,702). Features influencing incision time were extracted from electronic medical records and used to train 5 ML models (linear ridge regression, random forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, and explainable boosting machine [EBM]). Model performance was evaluated using a dynamic monthly update process and novel metrics such as wait-time blocks and excess-time blocks. Results: < .001, 95% CI [-329 to -89]), translating to approximately 52-hours over the 51-month study period. The model predicted more surgeries within a 15% range of the true incision time compared to traditional methods. Influential features included surgeon experience, number of additional procedures, body mass index (BMI), and uterine size. Conclusion: The ML model enhanced the prediction of incision times for robotic-assisted hysterectomies, providing a potential solution to reduce OR underutilization and increase surgical throughput and hospital revenue.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".