Advanced Solar Power Forecasting: A Hybrid/Ensemble Approach Utilizing Geographic and Meteorological Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Photovoltaic (PV) systems are pivotal in the global energy transition, where accurate solar power forecasting is critical. Traditional forecasting has leaned heavily on solar irradiance data, yet such reliance carries inherent uncertainties and measurement complexities, presenting significant forecasting challenges. This paper introduces a novel hybrid/ensemble model that reduces dependence on solar irradiance data, utilizing geographic, meteorological, and temporal data to predict solar power output. Combining the strengths of XGBoost and LightGBM algorithms through a linear regression meta-model, our approach demonstrates improved prediction accuracy, evidenced by a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.033, and an R-squared value of 0.693. This study advances solar power forecasting, enhancing PV system efficiency, and reliability, and promoting sustainable energy investments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".