Localizing hierarchical prediction errors and precisions during an oddball task with volatility: Computational insights and relationship with psychosocial functioning in healthy individuals
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The auditory mismatch negativity (MMN) has been widely used to investigate deficits in early auditory information processing, particularly in psychosis. Predictive coding theories suggest that impairments in sensory learning may arise from disturbances in hierarchical message passing, likely due to aberrant precision-weighting of prediction errors (PEs). This study employed a modified auditory oddball paradigm with varying phases of stability and volatility to disentangle the impact of hierarchical PEs on auditory MMN generation in 43 healthy controls (HCs). Single-trial EEG data were modeled with a hierarchical Bayesian model of learning to identify neural correlates of low-level PEs about tones and high-level PEs about environmental volatility. Our analysis revealed a reduced expression of the auditory MMN in volatile compared to stable phases of the paradigm. Additionally, lower Global Functioning (GF): Social scores were associated with a reduced difference waveform at 332 ms after stimulus presentation across the entire MMN paradigm. Further analysis revealed that this association was present during the volatile phase but not the stable phase of the paradigm. Source reconstruction suggested that the association between the stable difference waveform and psychosocial functioning originated in the left superior temporal gyrus. Finally, we found significant EEG signatures of both low- and high-level PEs and precision ratios. Our findings highlight the value of computational models in understanding the neural mechanisms involved in early auditory information processing and their connection to psychosocial functioning.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it