Polygenic Risk Score Added to Conventional Case Finding to Identify Undiagnosed Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Importance: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is often undiagnosed. Although genetic risk plays a significant role in COPD susceptibility, its utility in guiding spirometry testing and identifying undiagnosed cases is unclear. Objective: To determine whether a COPD polygenic risk score (PRS) enhances the identification of undiagnosed COPD beyond a case-finding questionnaire (eg, the Lung Function Questionnaire) using conventional risk factors and respiratory symptoms. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional analysis of participants 35 years or older who reported no history of physician-diagnosed COPD was conducted using data from 2 observational studies: the community-based Framingham Heart Study (FHS) and the COPD-enriched Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) study. Exposures: Modified Lung Function Questionnaire (mLFQ) scores and COPD PRS. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was spirometry-defined moderate to severe COPD (forced expiratory volume in the first second of expiration/forced vital capacity [FEV1/FVC] <0.7 and FEV1 [percent predicted] <80%). The performance of logistic models was assessed using the PRS, mLFQ score, and PRS plus mLFQ score for predicting spirometry-defined COPD. Results: Among 3385 FHS participants (median age, 52.0 years; 45.9% male) and 4095 COPDGene participants (median age, 56.8 years; 55.5% male) who reported no history of COPD, 160 (4.7%) FHS and 775 (18.9%) COPDGene participants had spirometry-defined COPD. Adding the PRS to the mLFQ score significantly improved the area under the curve from 0.78 to 0.84 (P < .001) in FHS, 0.69 to 0.72 (P = .04) in COPDGene non-Hispanic African American, and 0.75 to 0.78 (P < .001) in COPDGene non-Hispanic White participants. At a risk threshold for spirometry referral of 10%, the addition of the PRS to the mLFQ score correctly reclassified 13.8% (95% CI, 6.6%-21.0%) of COPD cases in FHS, but not in COPDGene. Conclusions and Relevance: A COPD PRS enhances the identification of undiagnosed COPD beyond a conventional case-finding approach in the general population. Further research is needed to assess its impact on COPD diagnosis and outcomes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".