P0643 Development of a personalized infliximab dosing algorithm for Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis: results of a multi-center pharmacometrics analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a medical emergency with a potential need for emergency colectomy. Infliximab (IFX) is a safe and effective rescue therapy for patients with steroid-refractory ASUC. Despite being increasingly practiced, there is no evidence that intensified/accelerated IFX regimens are superior to standard induction dosing [1]. However, insight into the IFX pharmacokinetics (PK) and personalized dosing in ASUC are lacking. Methods We performed a multicenter, retrospective population PK (popPK) and exposure–response modeling study using pooled individual data from ASUC patients diagnosed via Truelove and Witts score. Data on IFX dosing, exposure, patient demographics, and treatment outcomes were collected. A popPK model was developed to predict the relationship between IFX dosing and exposure. Parametric time-to-event analysis was used to predict colectomy within 3 months, considering patient characteristics and PK projections. An algorithm for personalized, risk-stratified IFX rescue dosing was developed. Modeling and simulation tasks were performed in NONMEM. Results Eight medical centers contributed data from 74 patients with ASUC (18 female; median [interquartile range] age 33 [22–47] years; body weight 63 [56–75] kg), including 157 IFX concentrations (Table 1). Baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum albumin were 30 [7–87] mg/L and 31 [27–38] g/L, respectively. Eleven patients (15%) underwent colectomy within 90 days after start of IFX therapy. The one-compartmental popPK model with typical IFX clearance (CL) 0.48 L/day (14% relative standard error) and volume of distribution (V) 12.9 L (21%) described the IFX concentration–time data well. IFX CL and V increased with higher body weight. CL increased with higher CRP. The ratio of the Bayesian forecasted (hence simulated) area under the IFX concentration–time curve between weeks 2 and 4 (AUCw2–w4) over the estimated CL (AUCw2–w4/CL), was the best predictor of colectomy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.80 [95%CI 0.54–1.00]). The higher the Ln(AUCw2–w4/CL), which we defined as the colectomy index (C-index), the lower the hazard risk for colectomy. A C-index of 5.84 discriminated best between patients with and without colectomy (sensitivity 83%, specificity 84%) (Figure 1). The classification accuracy was 82% [95%CI 71%–91%]. Conclusion We performed the first model-based dose–exposure–response analysis of IFX in patients with ASUC. We developed the C-index as a predictor for colectomy, which combines AUCw2–w4 (modifiable risk factor) and IFX CL (unmodifiable risk factor). Personalized dosing for IFX rescue therapy using individuals’ AUCw2–w4 target is feasible using an early TDM sample and a precision dosing software tool. References [1] Choy et al. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2024;9(11):981–996
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".