A systematically selected sample of luminous, long-duration, ambiguous nuclear transients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT We present a search for luminous long-duration ambiguous nuclear transients (ANTs) similar to the unprecedented discovery of the extreme ambiguous event AT2021lwx with a $\gt 150$ d rise time and luminosity $10^{45.7}$ erg s$^{-1}$. We use the Lasair transient broker to search Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) data for transients lasting more than one year and exhibiting smooth declines. Our search returns 59 events, 7 of which we classify as ANTs assumed to be driven by accretion onto supermassive black holes. We propose the remaining 52 are stochastic variability from regular supermassive black hole accretion rather than distinct transients. We supplement the seven ANTs with three nuclear transients in ZTF that fail the light curve selection but have clear single flares and spectra that do not resemble typical active galactic nucleus. All of these 11 ANTs have a mid-infrared flare from an assumed dust echo, implying the ubiquity of dust around the black holes giving rise to ANTs. No events are more luminous than AT2021lwx, but one (ZTF19aamrjar) has twice the duration and a higher integrated energy release. On the other extreme, ZTF20abodaps reaches a luminosity close to AT2021lwx with a rise time $\lt 20$ d and that fades smoothly in $\gt 600$ d. We define a portion of rise-time versus flare amplitude space that selects ANTs with $\sim 50$ per cent purity against variable AGNs. We calculate a volumetric rate of $\gtrsim 3\times 10^{-11}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ yr$^{-1}$, consistent with the events being caused by tidal disruptions of intermediate and high-mass stars.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".