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Record W4406746616 · doi:10.1080/09636412.2024.2442372

Evolution under Anarchy

2024· article· en· W4406746616 on OpenAlex
Arjun Chowdhury

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueSecurity Studies · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldPsychology
TopicEvolutionary Psychology and Human Behavior
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersSocial Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
KeywordsPolitical sciencePolitical economyLaw and economicsNeoclassical economicsEconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Kenneth Waltz argued that the international system “selects for” certain behaviors by punishing polities that deviate from these behaviors. This is expected to lead behaviors and the polities that engage in them to become broadly similar over time. As such, Waltz’s systemic theory is best understood as following an evolutionary logic whose explanatory success hinges on the degree to which the international system punishes polities that do not follow the lead of successful states. Much empirical research suggests there is more variation in the behavior and capacity of polities in the post-1945 international environment than predicted by Waltz. I argue a systemic theory that can account for this variation requires a new approach to selection. I term this “directed selection,” contrast it to the evolutionary logic in Waltz, and use it to analyze, inter alia, variation in behavior between states, the persistence of armed challengers to the state, and the role of the international system in these challenges.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.384
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.003

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.076
GPT teacher head0.420
Teacher spread0.345 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it