The role of preconditioning on landfast sea ice break-off processes in Admiralty Inlet, Nunavut
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Due to changes in the Arctic climate, the timing of spring break-up of landfast sea ice has become less predictable in recent years, which has implications for the traditional lifestyle of Inuit and shipping operations. We use satellite imagery from multiple sources to identify the timing of major spring sea ice break-off events in Admiralty Inlet, Nunavut from 2000 to 2022. The factors leading up to a major break-off event in 2022 are examined more closely using in situ and re-analysis of meteorological and oceanographic data and numerical experiments using a finite element model (FEM). The model enabled us to explore the effects of environmental stresses, aajurait (open leads), and shore leads on sea ice deformation prior to break-off. The development of our modelling approach and interpretation of results was informed by Inuit Knowledge. Modelled stress magnitudes are typically too small for widespread new fractures to occur under typical spring ice conditions. Rather, observations and FEM output suggest that the development of leads precondition the ice to allow relatively low wind and current forces to initiate break-off events.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".