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Record W4406767905 · doi:10.1002/eco.2759

Detecting Forest‐Wetland Changes in Northwestern Canada's Discontinuous Permafrost Region Using Landsat Trend Analysis

2025· article· en· W4406767905 on OpenAlexafffundabout
Olivia Carpino, Stephanie Wright, Jiaao Guo, Jurjen van der Sluijs, Ryan Connon, William L. Quinton

Bibliographic record

VenueEcohydrology · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicClimate change and permafrost
Canadian institutionsGovernment of Northwest TerritoriesQueen's UniversityWilfrid Laurier UniversityUniversity of CalgaryTrent University
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaArcticNet
KeywordsPermafrostWetlandEnvironmental sciencePhysical geographyHydrology (agriculture)Remote sensingGeologyGeographyEcologyOceanography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

ABSTRACT Rapid circumpolar warming has led to accelerated permafrost thaw that has induced extensive landscape change in northwestern Canada. In northwestern Canada's discontinuous permafrost zone, forest‐dominated peatland landscapes, which were largely underlain by permafrost, are transitioning to treeless, wetland‐dominated landscapes that are permafrost‐free. Previous studies that focused on permafrost thaw‐induced landscape transitions in boreal peatlands have used aerial photographs and/or high‐resolution satellite images acquired only at end nodes or decadal intervals across each study's time frame. This study uses a dense near‐annual resolution of mosaicked Landsat imagery to determine if changes can be detected to peatland landscapes over a 37‐year period for 10 study sites across a latitudinal transect through the southern Northwest Territories and northern British Columbia, Canada. Tasselled cap (TC) transformations (brightness, greenness and wetness) are applied to the Landsat imagery and compared with forest cover changes (1970–2010) derived from high resolution areal imagery to visually assess the performance of this method in revealing forest‐wetland changes driven by permafrost thaw. While methods based on Landsat TC trends have been successfully applied in northwestern Canada with forest fires and mass wasting, this study explores pixel trends as well as time series for more gradual thaw‐induced changes across peat plateaus, collapse scar wetlands and channel fens. This study demonstrates that TC transformations can be used to determine differing brightness, greenness and wetness trajectories for individual landcovers within permafrost peatlands (i.e., forest, collapse scar wetland and fen). However, the subtle and non‐monotonic landcover and hydrologic changes resulting from decades of permafrost thaw can be more challenging to detect. At the regional scale, widespread spectral greening was observed that was not solely indicative of forest cover or density increases, whereby TC trends were not consistent with expected permafrost thaw‐induced landscape changes. This work suggests that TC transformations may be limited in use for assessing broad‐scale effects of gradual permafrost thaw processes that occur at high temporal and spatial frequencies.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.116
Threshold uncertainty score0.596

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.021
GPT teacher head0.233
Teacher spread0.213 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2025
Admission routes3
Has abstractyes

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