The long multiphase trunk–tributary surge history of the high-Arctic Chapman Glacier, 1959–2023
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Surge-type glaciers have been identified throughout the Canadian Arctic, but detailed surge behavior has been sparsely studied. Recent high spatiotemporal resolution satellite products enable such studies, allowing for better process-based understanding of surging in this region. Here, we present a multidecadal record (1999–2023) of flow velocities, strain rates, and elevation changes for Chapman Glacier, a 40-km-long land-terminating glacier on Umingmak Nuna (Ellesmere Island), using ITS_LIVE (Inter-mission Time Series of Land Ice Velocity and Elevation), Sentinel-1, and elevation time series data products. We further use historical remote sensing data to analyze surface morphology and displacement from 1959 to 2023. After an inferred century-long or longer quiescent phase, Chapman Glacier surged for at least twenty-two years in two successive phases. Phase 1 occurred from 2001 to 2012 and was spatially limited to the trunk, and Phase 2 started around 2012 and continues to 2024, impacting the main tributary and the lower part of the trunk. In each surge phase flow speeds increased from ~25 to >200 m a−1 over approximately ten years, propagated from up-glacier to down-glacier, and involved notable mass displacements. Our record of this high-Arctic surge and first account of a tributary–trunk surge in the Canadian Arctic contributes to the characterization of the spectrum of dynamic ice flow instabilities worldwide.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".