A Systematic and Objective Framework for Evaluating Subcontractor Performance Using Monte Carlo Simulation Coupled with the Analytic Hierarchy Process and a Linear Additive Utility Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The general contractor (GC)–subcontractor (SC) relationship is a crucial aspect of construction supply chain management, heavily influencing project outcomes. This study investigates a method for assessing SC performance and underscores its essential role in construction projects. Traditionally, SC assessments are based on subjective evaluations, which can lead to biased decision-making. To counter this, this study introduces a comprehensive framework that employs objective indices and a systematic evaluation method. The study begins with a comprehensive literature review and expert consultations to identify key indices for SC evaluation: time, cost, quality, safety, resources, satisfaction, and leadership. A hybrid method combining Monte Carlo simulation and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is employed to assign weights to these indices through the development of probability distributions, thereby reducing judgment uncertainty. The developed evaluation model incorporates normalization and a linear additive utility model (LAUM) to calculate a performance index (PI) that quantifies SC performance across various levels, from outstanding to poor. The normalization process is applied with three tolerance levels (high, medium, and low). A real case study with a three-scenario sensitivity analysis demonstrates the model’s effectiveness. This approach provides general contractors with a more objective and transparent assessment process, minimizing bias in evaluations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.021 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".