Online Bayesian State Estimation for Real-Time Monitoring of Growth Kinetics in Thin Film Synthesis
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Rapid validation of newly predicted materials through autonomous synthesis requires real-time adaptive control methods that exploit physics knowledge, a capability that is lacking in most systems. Here, we demonstrate an approach to enable real-time control of thin film synthesis by combining in situ optical diagnostics with a Bayesian state estimation method. We developed a physical model for film growth and applied the direct filter (DF) method for real-time estimation of nucleation and growth rates during pulsed laser deposition (PLD). We validated the approach using simulated and experimental reflectivity data for WSe 2 growth and ultimately deployed the algorithm on an autonomous PLD system during the growth of 1T′-MoTe 2 . The DF robustly estimates growth parameters in real time at early stages of growth, down to 15% monolayer area coverage. This fusion of in situ diagnostics, data assimilation, and physical modeling opens new opportunities in adaptive control of synthesis trajectories toward desired material states.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it