The effect of cigarette prices on smoking cessation in South Africa using duration analysis: 1970–2017
Bibliographic record
Abstract
South Africa is an interesting case to explore given its high smoking rates and quit intentions, its experience with periods of tax- and industry-initiated cigarette price increases, and the mixed evidence of the effect of prices on smoking cessation (particularly in low- and middle-income countries). We used data from five waves of the National Income Dynamics Study, a nationally-representative survey conducted between 2008 and 2017, and duration analysis techniques to examine whether cigarette prices were associated with South African smokers' decision to quit smoking. Smoking histories were constructed from self-reported age of onset and cessation and matched to monthly price data from 1970 to 2017. We found that price was associated with smoking cessation: a 10% increase in the price of cigarettes was associated with an increase in smoking cessation of 5.8-7.9%, depending on model specification. Our results indicate that increasing the excise tax on cigarettes above inflation would likely encourage smoking cessation in South Africa, provided measures to reduce illicit cigarette trade are concurrently implemented.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".