MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W4406946807 · doi:10.1093/ofid/ofae631.1463

P-1282. Saving Lives and Costs: Respiratory Syncytial Virus Wastewater Surveillance to Guide all infant prophylaxis in Ontario, Canada

2025· article· en· W4406946807 on OpenAlexaffabout
Élisabeth Mercier, Nisha Thampi, Shen Wan, Bosco Paes, John Fullarton, I. Keary, Barry Rodgers‐Gray, Robert Delatolla

Bibliographic record

VenueOpen Forum Infectious Diseases · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicRespiratory viral infections research
Canadian institutionsMcMaster UniversityUniversity of OttawaAgricultural Research Institute of Ontario
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMedicinePalivizumabEnvironmental healthPre-exposure prophylaxisVirologyVirusPediatricsHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV)

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Background Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) detected seasonal activity up to one month earlier than clinical surveillance (CS) during the 2022 RSV season in two Ontario cities, Canada. The associated cost-consequence analysis comparing the use of WBS vs CS to guide the start of provincial immunoprophylaxis programs showed WBS-guided prophylaxis realized savings of CAD $2.1-3.5m in the first year and $13.7-16.6m over 1-3 years due to early RSV detection. Further investigation is needed to explore the reproducibility and scalability of WBS for RSV in a provincial surveillance initiative. Geospatial distribution of the 12 sentinel sampling locations across Ontario, Canada Methods In collaboration with the Ontario Ministry of Health (MOH), 12 locations in the province were selected as sentinel WBS sites based on population density, socio-economic strata, and their significance as primary pediatric centres where palivizumab is administered (Figure 1). City-wide, 24-hour composite wastewater samples were collected and screened for RSV by RT-qPCR three to seven times a week. We monitored RSV-WBS data and pediatric RSV-related hospitalizations (RSVH) between September 1, 2023, to March 15, 2024. Cumulative fraction of locations for the onset of the 2023 RSV season in Ontario, Canada Date of onset of regional RSV activity as identify by wastewater surveillance at each of the 12 sentinel locations during the 2023 RSV season, represented as a cumulative fraction. Results During the study period, RSV was detected in 76% (1092/1440) of all wastewater samples collected, with detection at all locations. WBS effectively tracked the geographical variation in viral activity across the province. There was a 73-day variation in the RSV season onset across locations, with northern sites lagging southern locations by 62 ± 11 days (Figure 2). WBS detected regional RSV activity up to 15 days prior to the provincial start date of October 30, 2023, as determined by CS. Considering the estimated WBS cost of $0.50 per eligible infant compared to an average of $5,000 per RSVH, and an estimated fewer RSVHs per year, provincial WBS-guided prophylaxis could significantly reduce healthcare costs and the burden of RSV associated illness. Conclusion RSV WBS could be a highly cost-effective strategy that identifies the early onset of the RSV season, thereby optimizing immunoprophylaxis timing. Additionally, it is scalable to communities of varying sizes and socioeconomic strata and reflects geospatial variation in regional RSV activity supporting its use in a provincial-wide WBS initiative. Disclosures Bosco Paes, MD, Professor Emeritus, AstraZeneca: advisor/lecturer outside the scope of this study|Sanofi: advisor/lecturer outside the scope of this study John Fullarton, n/a, AstraZeneca: Employer has received payment from AstraZeneca for work on various projects outside the scope of this study|Sanofi: Employer has received payment from Sanofi for work on various projects outside the scope of this study Barry Rodgers-Gray, n/a, AstraZeneca: Employer has received payment from AstraZeneca for work on various projects outside the scope of this study|Sanofi: Employer has received payment from Sanofi for work on various projects outside the scope of this study

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.152
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.017
GPT teacher head0.319
Teacher spread0.302 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2025
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueOpen Forum Infectious DiseasesSame topicRespiratory viral infections researchFrench-language works237,207