Spatial Evaluation of Salurnis marginella Occurrence According to Climate Change Using Multiple Species Distribution Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Salurnis marginella causes agricultural and forest damage in various Asian environments. However, considering the environmental adaptability of pests and the active international trade, it may invade other regions in the future. As the damage to local communities caused by pests becomes difficult to control after invasion, it is essential to establish measures to minimize losses through pre-emptive monitoring and identification of high-risk areas, which can be achieved through model-based predictions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential distribution of S. marginella by developing multiple species distribution modeling (SDM) algorithms. Specifically, we developed the CLIMEX model and three machine learning-based models (MaxEnt, random forest, and multi-layer perceptron), integrated them to conservatively assess pest occurrence under current and future climates, and overlaid the host distribution with climatically suitable areas of S. marginella to identify high-risk areas vulnerable to the spread and invasion of the pest. The developed model, demonstrating a true skill statistic >0.8, predicted the potential continuous distribution of the species across the southeastern United States, South America, and Central Africa. This distribution currently covers approximately 9.53% of the global land area; however, the model predicted this distribution would decrease to 6.85%. Possible areas of spread were identified in Asia and the southwestern United States, considering the host distribution. This study provides data for the proactive monitoring of pests by identifying areas where S. marginella can spread.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".