Prediction of insulin resistance using multiple adaptive regression spline in Chinese women
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Insulin resistance (IR) is the core for type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome. The homeostasis assessment model is a straightforward and practical tool for quantifying insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Multiple adaptive regression spline (MARS) is a machine learning method used in many research fields but has yet to be applied to estimating HOMA-IR. This study uses MARS to build an equation to estimate HOMA-IR in pre-menopausal Chinese women based on a sample of 4,071 healthy women aged 20-50 with no major diseases and no medication use for blood pressure, blood glucose or blood lipids. Thirty variables were applied to build the HOMA-IR model, including demographic, laboratory, and lifestyle factors. MARS results in smaller prediction errors than traditional multiple linear regression (MLR) methods, and is thus more accurate. The model was established based on key impact factors including waist-hip ratio (WHR), C reactive protein (CRP), uric acid (UA), total bilirubin (TBIL), leukocyte (WBC), serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (GOT), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), systolic blood pressure (SBP), serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase (GPT), and triglycerides (TG). The equation is as following:HOMA-IR = 6.634 - 1.448MAX(0, 0.833 - WHR) + 10.152MAX(0, WHR - 0.833) - 1.351MAX(0, 0.7 - CRP) - 0.449MAX(0, CRP - 0.7) + 1.062MAX(0, UA - 8.5) + +1.047(MAX(0, 0.83 - TBIL) + 0.681MAX(0, WBC - 11.53) - 0.071MAX(0, 11.53 - WBC) + 0.043MAX(0, 24 - GOT) - 0.017MAX(0, GOT - 24) + 0.021MAX(0, 59 - HDL) - 0.005MAX(0, HDL - 59) - 0.013MAX(0, 141 - SBP) - 0.033MAX(0, 100 - GPT) + 0.013MAX(0, GPT - 100) - 0.004MAX(303 - TG)Results indicate that MARS is a more precise tool than fasting plasma insulin (FPI) levels, and could be used in the daily practice, and further longitudinal studies are warranted.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".