Quantifying and combining uncertainty for improving the behavior of Digital Twin Systems
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Uncertainty is an inherent property of any complex system, especially those that incorporate physical parts or operate in real environments. In this paper, we focus on the Digital Twins of adaptive systems, which are particularly complex to design, verify, and optimize. One of the problems of having two systems (the physical one and its digital replica) is that their behavior may not always be consistent. In addition, both twins are normally subject to different types of uncertainties, which complicates their comparison. In this paper we propose the explicit representation and treatment of the uncertainty of both twins, and show how this enables a more accurate comparison of their behaviors. Furthermore, this allows us to reduce the overall system uncertainty and improve its behavior by properly averaging the individual uncertainties of the two twins. An exemplary incubator system is used to illustrate and validate our proposal.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it