Drying spring accelerates transitions toward pyrogenic vegetation in eastern boreal North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
not-yet-known not-yet-known not-yet-known unknown Ongoing climate change is increasing the flammability of vegetation, ensuing intensified fire episodes in the boreal forest of eastern North America. Fire activity of the last decades suggests that we are probably at a tipping point in terms of fire regimes, raising new questions about the impact of these fires on the biodiversity and structure of the boreal forest. By integrating a compelling paleo-dataset (charcoal, pollen, chironomids, testate amoebae) with model simulations of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and plant-available soil water (ASW) spanning the last 8,000 years, we demonstrate that drier spring conditions over the past 4,000 years led to fewer but larger and more severe fire episodes, peaking during the last 250 years. This shift in the fire regime fostered a parallel rise in fire-prone conifer species across landscapes, notably Pinus banksiana Lamb. (jack pine). We infer that the predicted increase in VPD along with decrease in ASW triggered by climate change will alter the fire regime and will amplify the transition towards more pyrogenic vegetation within the boreal forest of eastern North America
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".