Kolmogorov-Arnold recurrent network for short term load forecasting across diverse consumers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Load forecasting plays a crucial role in energy management, directly impacting grid stability, operational efficiency, cost reduction, and environmental sustainability. Traditional Vanilla Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) face issues such as vanishing and exploding gradients, whereas sophisticated RNNs such as Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) have shown considerable success in this domain. However, these models often struggle to accurately capture complex and sudden variations in energy consumption, and their applicability is typically limited to specific consumer types, such as offices or schools. To address these challenges, this paper proposes the Kolmogorov-Arnold Recurrent Network (KARN), a novel load forecasting approach that combines the flexibility of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks with RNN's temporal modeling capabilities. KARN utilizes learnable temporal spline functions and edge-based activations to better model non-linear relationships in load data, making it adaptable across a diverse range of consumer types. The proposed KARN model was rigorously evaluated on a variety of real-world datasets, including student residences, detached homes, a home with electric vehicle charging, a townhouse, and industrial buildings. Across all these consumer categories, KARN consistently outperformed traditional Vanilla RNNs, while it surpassed LSTM and Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) in six buildings. The results demonstrate KARN's superior accuracy and applicability, making it a promising tool for enhancing load forecasting in diverse energy management scenarios.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".