Cumulative Excess Body Mass Index and MGUS Progression to Myeloma
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Importance: Obesity is a risk factor associated with multiple myeloma (MM) and its precursor, monoclonal gammopathy of unknown significance (MGUS). However, it is unclear how cumulative exposure to obesity affects the risk of MGUS progression to MM. Objective: To determine the association of cumulative exposure to excess body mass index (EBMI), defined as BMI (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) greater than 25, with risk of MGUS progression to MM. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included patients with MGUS, including immunoglobin G, immunoglobin A, or light chain MGUS, from the nationwide US Veterans Health Administration database from October 1, 1999, to December 31, 2021. A published natural language processing-assisted model was used to confirm diagnoses of MGUS and progression to MM. Data were analyzed from February 12 to November 4, 2024. Exposures: Cumulative EBMI was calculated by area under the curve of measured BMI subtracting the reference BMI at 25 during the first 3 years after MGUS diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was progression from MGUS to MM. Multivariable Fine-Gray time-to-competing-event analyses, with death as the competing event, were used to determine associations. Results: The cohort included 22 429 patients with MGUS (median [IQR] age, 70.5 [63.5-77.9] years; 21 613 [96.4%] male), with 8329 Black patients (37.1%) and 14 100 White patients (62.9%). There were 4862 patients (21.7%) with reference range BMI (18.5 to <25), 7619 patients (34.0%) with BMI 25 to less than 30, and 8513 patients (38.0%) with BMI 30 or greater at the time of MGUS diagnosis. Compared with reference range BMI at MGUS diagnosis, patients with BMI 25 to less than 30 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.17; 95% CI, 1.03-1.34) or 30 or greater (aHR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.09-1.47) at MGUS diagnosis had higher risk of progression to MM. In patients with reference range BMI at MGUS diagnosis, each 1-unit increase of EBMI per year was associated with a 21% increase in progression risk (aHR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.04-1.40). However, for patients with BMI 25 or greater at MGUS diagnosis, the incremental risk associated with cumulative EBMI exposure was not statistically significant. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that, for patients with BMI 18.5 to less than 25 at the time of MGUS diagnosis, cumulative exposure to BMI 25 or greater was associated with an increased risk of progression. These findings suggest that for these patients, maintaining a healthy and stable weight following MGUS diagnosis may prevent progression to MM.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".