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Record W4407251648 · doi:10.1073/pnas.2416643122

Robust inattentive discrete choice

2025· article· en· W4407251648 on OpenAlexaff
Lars Peter Hansen, Jianjun Miao, Hao Xing

Bibliographic record

VenueProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicDecision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Canadian institutionsQuest University CanadaBooth University College
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMathematicsComputer science

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Rational inattention models characterize optimal decision-making in data-rich environments. In such environments, it can be costly to look carefully at all of the information. Some information is much more salient for the decision at hand and merits closer scrutiny. The inattention decision model formalizes this choice and deduces how best to navigate through the potentially vast array of data when making decisions. In the rational formulation, the decision-maker commits fully to a subjective prior distribution over the possible states of the world that could be realized. We relax this assumption and look for a robustly optimal solution to the inattention problem by allowing the decision-maker to be ambiguity averse with respect to this prior. We feature a setup that is deliberately simple by a) assuming a discrete set of choices, b) using Shannon's mutual information to quantify attention costs, and c) imposing relative entropy with respect to a baseline probability distribution to quantify prior divergence. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the robust solution and develop numerical methods to solve it. In comparison to the rational solution with no prior uncertainty, our decision-maker slants priors in more cautious or pessimistic directions when deducing how to allocate attention over the range of available information. This approach implements a form of robustness to prior misspecification, or equivalently, a form of ambiguity aversion. We explore some examples that show how the robust solution differs from the rational solution with a commitment to a subjective prior distribution and how it differs from imposing risk aversion.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.005
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.007
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.319
Threshold uncertainty score0.800

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0050.007
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0030.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.200
GPT teacher head0.430
Teacher spread0.230 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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