Of Lyme disease and machine learning in a One Health world
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objective: Lyme disease is a vector-borne emerging zoonosis in Ontario driven by human population growth and climate change. Lyme disease is also a prime example of the One Health concept. While little can be done to immediately reverse climate change and population growth, public health must resort to health communication as its best option for disease control until an effective vaccine becomes available. Disease surveillance enabling precision public health has an important role in this respect: one of the goals of disease surveillance is to forecast the future burden of disease to inform those who need to know. The goal of this study was to forecast the burden of Lyme disease using automated machine learning and statistical learning approaches. Methods: Lyme disease reports were retrieved from Ontario's integrated Public Health Information System surveillance system from January 2005 to December 2023. The reports from January 2005 to December 2021 were used as training data, and reports from January 2022 to December 2023 served as validation data. Forecasts from a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average model were used as a benchmark for forecasts from a feed-forward single-layer neural network machine learning algorithm. Results: The Lyme disease burden in Ontario is predicted to increase dramatically. Neither the neural network nor the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average model proved to be generally more accurate. Conclusions: The increasing burden of human Lyme disease is concerning to public health, further indicating ecosystem changes and challenges for canine health. Clinical Relevance: Human Lyme disease surveillance provides useful information to veterinarians.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".