Filling the Atlantic coastal tree-ring reconstruction gap: A 195-year record of growing season discharge of the Sainte-Anne River, Gaspésie, Québec, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present a coastal river reconstruction between the Hudson River and north-central Québec, filling a substantial hiatus between 41° N and 53° N along the Atlantic North American margin, and adding to the four existing Atlantic coastal river basins with reconstructions. This study produced a 195-year tree-ring based reconstruction of growing season flow of the Sainte-Anne River, Gaspésie, Québec, Canada. Our nested reconstruction (maximum R 2 = 0.53, maximum RE = 0.32) was based upon eight site chronologies where snowpack limits the length of the growing season. We found declining extreme May-July flows since 1937, suggesting a reduction of snowpack in this alpine region in the northern Appalachians. Our Gaspésie reconstruction showed droughts and pluvials in common with multi-centennial river/moisture reconstructions along the Atlantic Seaboard from New York, Delaware and Maryland and from north-central Québec. A principal components analysis (PCA) and correlation analysis with GRUN (the 5°x5° gridded multi-model ensemble of runoff of Ghiggi et al. (2019. Earth Syst. Sci. Data. 11, (1655–1674) showed common modes of variability through-out this broader region. While energy-limited tree-ring chronologies are well-known in western North America, they are poorly known in eastern North America. We found energy-limited snow proxy sites in this region noted for its high snowfall. This reconstruction may prove useful for wildlife, fisheries and hydroelectric reservoir management. • Fills gap in coastal tree-ring based river reconstructions between 41°N and 53°N. • Adds fifth river to the four existing river basin reconstructions of Atlantic coast. • Found decline in extreme May-July flows since 1937, hence recent snowpack decline. • Decadal periods of below-mean MJJ flows more likely than long above-mean flows. • Shows long-term hydrological connections all along eastern continental margin.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".