A Gaussian sliding windows regression model for hydrological inference
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Statistical models are an essential tool to model, forecast, and understand the hydrological processes in watersheds. In particular, the understanding of time lags associated with the delay between rainfall occurrence and subsequent changes in streamflow is of high practical importance. Since water can take a variety of flow paths to generate streamflow, a series of distinct runoff pulses may combine to create the observed streamflow time series. Current state-of-the-art models are not able to sufficiently confront the problem complexity with interpretable parametrization, thus preventing novel insights about the dynamics of distinct flow paths from being formed. The proposed Gaussian Sliding Windows Regression Model targets this problem by combining the concept of multiple windows sliding along the time axis with multiple linear regression. The window kernels, which indicate the weights applied to different time lags, are implemented via Gaussian-shaped kernels. As a result, straightforward process inference can be achieved since each window can represent one flow path. Experiments on simulated and real-world scenarios underline that the proposed model achieves accurate parameter estimates and competitive predictive performance, while fostering explainable and interpretable hydrological modelling.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".