Comment on egusphere-2024-3377
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Sustained anthropogenic perturbations are anticipated to influence Earth's climate system well beyond the 21st century. Despite growing interest in climate change after 2100 and improved computational resources, multi-century climate projections remain limited in number. Here, we examine a set of 10 ensemble simulations extending the Community Earth System Model 2 large ensemble (CESM2-LE) from 2101 to 2500 under the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)3-7.0 scenario, which involves the reduction of fossil and industrial CO2 emissions to zero by 2250. By the year 2500, substantial forced changes are projected in both the spatial and temporal characteristics of variability and mean states. Post-2100, El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability is expected to diminish, while the tropical intraseasonal variability will notably strengthen. The mean state changes include a global mean temperature rise of 12 °C and a 23.5 % increase in global precipitation compared with historical observations. Additionally, substantial soil carbon release from permafrost thawing is projected over Siberia and Canada, resulting in a shift of land from a carbon sink to a carbon source after the 22nd century. The ocean experiences a rapidly diminished capacity to absorb anthropogenic CO2 after the 21st century, while nevertheless continuing to act as a carbon sink, with an increased contribution from the Southern Ocean to total carbon uptake. The model also projects a considerable decline in low-latitude marine primary production, which is linked to a considerable depletion of PO4 in the local mesopelagic domain. At urban scales, the extended simulations reveal substantial projected changes in the amplitude and phasing of precipitation seasonality, with the same holding for the partial pressure of CO2 in seawater at regional scales, demonstrating that post-2100 changes are not simply amplifications of projected 21st century changes. Taken together, these new simulations highlight the far-reaching impacts of multi-centennial climate change on both human societies and global ecosystems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.020 | 0.010 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.305 | 0.179 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".