Relationship between undetectable PSA nadir and outcomes for patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) in IRONMAN, the International Registry for Men with Advanced Prostate Cancer.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
65 Background: Intensified androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with an androgen receptor pathway inhibitor (ARPI) and/or docetaxel has led to improved outcomes for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) in multiple clinical trials. Achievement of an undetectable PSA nadir has been associated with improved clinical outcomes, but real-world data across treatment regimens are limited. Methods: We evaluated PSA response and outcomes for patients with mHSPC treated with ADT monotherapy (mono), ADT + ARPI, and ADT + docetaxel in the International Registry for Men with Advanced Prostate Cancer (IRONMAN). All patients with mHSPC enrolled in IRONMAN between 2017 and August 2023 in the United States, Canada, Spain, and England were included. Patients treated with triplet therapy were excluded due to small numbers. Undetectable PSA nadir, defined as PSA <0.2 ng/mL, was evaluated at 6 and 12 months after treatment start. In this real-world study, relapse was defined as meeting one of the following criteria: PSA progression (≥25% PSA increase from nadir and absolute increase >2 ng/mL), treatment change preceded by new metastasis location, or change to a neuroendocrine prostate cancer regimen. Rates of relapse were calculated using Kaplan Meier estimates, with confidence intervals based on standard errors calculated using the Greenwood formula. Results: Among 1,377 eligible patients, treatment was most commonly ADT + ARPI (n=775) followed by ADT mono (n=375) and ADT + docetaxel (n=227). In the overall population, PSA nadir <0.2 ng/mL was achieved in 40% (n=554) at 6 months and 51% (n=702) at 12 months. Rates of PSA nadir <0.2 ng/mL at 6 months were: 51% for ADT + ARPI, 27% for ADT mono, and 26% for ADT + docetaxel. At 12 months, rates of PSA nadir <0.2 ng/mL increased to: 63% for ADT + ARPI, 38% for ADT mono, and 32% for ADT + docetaxel. During a median follow-up of 18 months, 291 patients (21%) experienced disease relapse; 19% experienced PSA progression. The percentage of patients in each treatment group with disease relapse at months 12, 24, and 36 of treatment are shown (Table); treatment groups are divided by whether patients had achieved PSA nadir <0.2 ng/mL in 6 months. Conclusions: In this non-randomized, real-world registry, patients with mHSPC who achieved a PSA nadir <0.2 ng/mL had a lower relapse rate than patients who did not, regardless of treatment. Percentage (95% CI), [number at risk] of patients with relapse at timepoint. Treatment Month 6 Month 12 Month 24 Month 36 ADT Monotherapyn=375 PSA <0.2 ng/mL 0%(0, 0)[60] 1.7%(0, 5.0)[31] 11%(0, 24)[15] PSA ≥0.2 ng/mL 18%(11, 24)[80] 41%(30, 51)[38] 45%(33, 55)[19] ADT + ARPIn=775 PSA <0.2 ng/mL 2.2%(0.6, 3.8)[288] 9.7%(5.9, 13)[166] 18%(12, 24)[76] PSA ≥0.2 ng/mL 21%(16, 26)[178] 42%(35, 49)[81] 50%(42, 58)[37] ADT + Docetaxeln=227 PSA <0.2 ng/mL 8.2%(0.2, 16)[44] 22%(8.9, 33)[29] 36%(18, 50)[14] PSA ≥0.2 ng/mL 34%(25, 43)[69] 62%(50, 72)[21] 73%(59, 82)[12]
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".