Disease burden of trachea, bronchus and lung cancer 1990–2021 and global trends projected to 2035
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer (TBL) is among the most common malignancies worldwide, with persistently high incidence and mortality rates, posing a significant threat to public health. However, existing studies on TBL disease burden are often limited to specific regions or short-term trends, lacking systematic and predictive analyses. This study comprehensively evaluated the global, regional, and national burden of TBL across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, utilizing predictive models to estimate trends from 2022 to 2035. This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database to systematically analyze the prevalence (ASPR), incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with TBL. Age-standardized rates (ASR) were used to quantify disease burden. Historical trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression analysis, while ARIMA and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were employed to predict future trends. The study also incorporated the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) to investigate the impact of socioeconomic development on TBL burden. In 2021, the global ASPR, ASIR, ASMR, and DALYs for TBL were 37.28, 26.43, 23.50, and 638.60 per 100,000 population, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, ASPR increased slightly (0.09 per 100,000), while ASIR, ASMR, and DALYs declined by 0.07, 0.15, and 0.23 per 100,000, respectively. Regionally, the highest ASPR was observed in the high-income Asia-Pacific region (69.79 per 100,000), while East Asia recorded the highest ASIR (43.41 per 100,000) and ASMR (38.53 per 100,000). Sub-Saharan Africa had the lowest burden. Gender analysis showed that males had a significantly higher TBL burden than females, but their burden declined over the study period. In contrast, females, particularly in older age groups, experienced an increase in burden. Future predictions indicate that the overall TBL burden will decline between 2022 and 2035; however, the burden among females and older adults is projected to rise, with a marked increase in female ASPR. This study highlights the global and regional trends in TBL burden from 1990 to 2021 and provides predictions for future burden. Although the overall burden is declining, significant disparities exist across genders and regions, with East Asia and high-income North America warranting particular attention. Females and older adults are priority groups for future interventions. The findings underscore the importance of early screening, targeted interventions, and region-specific strategies to optimize public health policies, resource allocation, and tailored prevention efforts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".