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Record W4407765416 · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-57019-x

Expanding protected area coverage for migratory birds could improve long-term population trends

2025· article· en· W4407765416 on OpenAlexafffund
Jennifer A. Border, James W. Pearce‐Higgins, Chris M. Hewson, Christine Howard, Philip A. Stephens, Stephen G. Willis, Richard A. Fuller, Jeffrey O. Hanson, H. Sierdsema, Ruud Foppen, Gabriel Gargallo, Daniel Fink, Stephen R. Baillie

Bibliographic record

VenueNature Communications · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicSpecies Distribution and Climate Change
Canadian institutionsCarleton University
FundersNatural Environment Research CouncilEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaNature Conservancy of CanadaSight Research UKDurham UniversityResearch Councils UK
KeywordsPasserineGeographyBiodiversityProtected areaDistribution (mathematics)Range (aeronautics)PopulationEcologyConservation biologyBiologyDemography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Populations of many migratory taxa have been declining over recent decades. Although protected areas are a cornerstone for conservation, their role in protecting migratory species can be incomplete due to the dynamic distributions of these species. Here, we use a pan-European citizen science bird occurrence dataset (EurobirdPortal) with Spatiotemporal Exploratory Modelling to assess how the weekly distributions of 30 passerine and near passerine species overlap with protected areas in Europe and compare this to range adjusted policy protection targets. Thirteen of our 30 species were inadequately covered by protected areas for some, or all, of the European part of their annual cycle under a target based on the 2020 Convention on Biodiversity framework and none were adequately covered under a target based on the 2030 Convention on Biodiversity framework. Species associated with farmland had the lowest percentage of their weekly distribution protected. The percentage of a species' distribution within protected areas was positively correlated with its long-term population trend, even after accounting for confounding factors, suggesting a positive influence of protected areas on long-term trends. This emphasises the positive contribution that an informed expansion of the European protected area system could play for the future conservation of migratory land birds.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.005
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.019
Threshold uncertainty score0.037

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.005
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0050.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.030
GPT teacher head0.326
Teacher spread0.296 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations6
Published2025
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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