Accounting for Edge Uncertainty in Stochastic Actor-Oriented Models for Dynamic Network Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Stochastic Actor-Oriented Models (SAOMs) were designed in the social network setting to capture network dynamics representing a variety of influences on network change. The standard framework assumes the observed networks are free of false positive and false negative edges, which may be an unrealistic assumption. We propose a hidden Markov model (HMM) extension to these models, consisting of two components: 1) a latent model, which assumes that the unobserved, true networks evolve according to a Markov process as they do in the SAOM framework; and 2) a measurement model, which describes the conditional distribution of the observed networks given the true networks. An expectation-maximization algorithm is developed for parameter estimation. We address the computational challenge posed by a massive discrete state space, of a size exponentially increasing in the number of vertices, through the use of the missing information principle and particle filtering. We present results from a simulation study, demonstrating our approach offers improvement in accuracy of estimation, in contrast to the standard SAOM, when the underlying networks are observed with noise. We apply our method to functional brain networks inferred from electroencephalogram data, revealing larger effect sizes when compared to the naive approach of fitting the standard SAOM.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".