MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W4407857289 · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02095-6

Ice core evidence for the Los Chocoyos supereruption disputes millennial-scale climate impact

2025· article· en· W4407857289 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Helen M. Innes, William R. Hutchison, Michael Sigl, Laura Crick, Peter M Abbott, Matthias Bigler, Nathan Chellman, Siwan M. Davies, Steffen Kutterolf, Joseph R. McConnell, Mirko Severi, R. S. J. Sparks, Anders Svensson, Eric Wolff, James Rae, Andrea Burke

Bibliographic record

VenueCommunications Earth & Environment · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicGeology and Paleoclimatology Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersOffice of Polar ProgramsAgence Nationale de la RechercheLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia UniversityAkademie der NaturwissenschaftenInstitut Polaire Français Paul Emile VictorKorea Polar Research InstituteNatural Resources CanadaFonds Wetenschappelijk OnderzoekSchweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen ForschungMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and TechnologyNederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk OnderzoekEuropean CommissionCentre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueEuropean Science FoundationChinese Academy of SciencesNational Institute of Polar ResearchUniversity of St AndrewsFonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRSLeverhulme TrustPast Global ChangesNatural Environment Research CouncilEngineering and Physical Sciences Research CouncilUK Research and InnovationNational Science Foundation
KeywordsTephraIce coreProxy (statistics)VolcanoGeologyPhysical geographyVolcanic ashEarth scienceQuaternaryIce ageClimatologyPaleoclimatologyClimate changeGlacial periodOceanographyGeochemistryPaleontologyGeography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Volcanic supereruptions are considered among the few drivers of global and existential catastrophes, with recent hypotheses suggesting massive volcanic stratospheric sulfate injection could instigate major shifts in global climate. The absence of supereruptions during recent history as well as large uncertainties on eruption ages limits understanding of the climatic risk they impose. Polar ice cores have well-resolved continuous age models, record past temperature, and contain volcanic sulfate and cryptotephra deposits which can be geochemically fingerprinted to determine eruption timing and improve stratospheric sulfur loading estimates. Here, we provide an age of 79,500 years for the Atitlán Los Chocoyos supereruption, one of the largest Quaternary eruptions, by identifying tephra shards in ice cores from both Greenland and Antarctica. This ice core age is supported by a revised marine sediment core stratigraphy age for the Los Chocoyos ash layer. Through comparison with well-dated ice-core temperature proxy records, our study suggests that despite being one of the largest sulfur emissions recorded in ice cores, the Los Chocoyos supereruption did not trigger a millennial-scale cold period.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.048
Threshold uncertainty score0.096

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.087
GPT teacher head0.350
Teacher spread0.263 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations4
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueCommunications Earth & EnvironmentSame topicGeology and Paleoclimatology ResearchFrench-language works237,207