Modeling the Nexus of Climate Change and Deforestation: Implications for the Blue Water Resources of the Jari River, Amazonia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Deforestation and agricultural practices, such as livestock farming, disrupt biogeochemical cycles, contribute to climate change, and can lead to serious environmental problems. Understanding the water cycle and changes in discharge patterns at the watershed scale is essential to tracking how deforestation affects the flow to downstream water bodies and the ocean. The Amazon basin, which provides about 15–20% of the freshwater flowing into the oceans, is one of the most important river systems in the world. Despite this, it is increasingly suffering from anthropogenic pressure, mainly from converting rainforests to agricultural and livestock areas, which can drive global warming and ecosystem instability. In this study, we applied a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to the Jari River Watershed, a part of the Brazilian Amazon, to assess the combined effects of deforestation and climate change on water resources between 2020 and 2050. The model was calibrated and validated using observed streamflow. The results show an NS of 0.85 and 0.89, PBIAS of −9.5 and −0.6, p-factor of 0.84 and 0.93, and r-factor of 0.84 and 0.78, for periods of calibration and validation, respectively, indicating a strong model performance. We analyzed four scenarios that examined different levels of deforestation and climate change. Our results suggest that deforestation and climate change could increase surface runoff by 18 mm, while groundwater recharge could vary between declines of −20 mm and increases of 120 mm. These changes could amplify streamflow variability, affect its dynamics, intensify flood risks, and reduce water availability during dry periods, leading to significant risks for the hydrology of Amazonian watersheds and human water supply. This, in turn, could profoundly impact the region’s megadiverse flora and fauna, which directly depend on balanced streamflow in the watersheds.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".