Assessing the Accident Severity Level of Passenger Vessels in Indonesia Using Bayesian Network Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The growing demand for passenger vessels has been paralleled by increased accidents, resulting in significant economic, human, and environmental losses.Accidents on passenger ships often stem from complex factors, including technical, operational, and human elements.Therefore, a detailed analysis is essential for understanding these factors and improving safety management.While various traditional risk analysis methods exist, the Bayesian Network (BN) offers unique advantages in modelling the probabilistic relationships between risk factors and accident outcomes.This study aims to analyse the accident severity level of passenger vessels in Indonesia by employing a Tree Augmented Naï ve Bayesian Network (TAN-BN) to assess 46 passenger ship accidents in Indonesia using 17 identified Risk Influencing Factors (RIFs) focused on ship internal factors.Sensitivity analysis using mutual information and True Risk Influence (TRI) methods identified "Ship Operation" and "Accident Type" as the most significant RIFs, where the ship during passage is the most severe ship operation, and the ship sinking accident is the most catastrophic accident type.Scenario analysis revealed that very serious accidents often occur in transit, with human factors, particularly violation errors, playing a critical role.This study can leverage the decision-making process for stakeholders to reduce the severity of accidents in passenger vessels.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".