TOI-2015 b: A sub-Neptune in strong gravitational interaction with an outer non-transiting planet
Bibliographic record
Abstract
TOI-2015 is a known exoplanetary system around an M4 dwarf star, consisting of a transiting sub-Neptune planet in a 3.35-day orbital period, TOI-2015 b, accompanied by a non-transiting companion, TOI-2015 c. High-precision radial-velocity measurements were taken with the MAROON-X spectrograph, and high-precision photometric data were collected, primarily using the SPECULOOS, MUSCAT, TRAPPIST and LCOGT networks. We collected 63 transit light curves and 49 different transit epochs for TOI-2015 b. We recharacterized the target star by combining optical spectra obtained by the MAROON-X, Shane/KAST and IRTF/SpeX spectrographs, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and spectral energy distribution (SED) analysis. The TOI-2015 host star is a K = 10.3 mag M4-type dwarf with a subsolar metallicity of [Fe/H] = −0.31 ± 0.16, and an effective temperature of T eff ≈ 3200 K. Our photodynamical analysis of the system strongly favors the 5:3 mean-motion resonance and in this scenario the planet b (TOI-2015 b) has an orbital period of P b = 3.34 days, a mass of M p = 9.02 -0.36 +0.32 M ⊕ , and a radius of R p = 3.309 -0.011 +0.013 R ⊕ , resulting in a density of ρ p = 0.25 ± 0.01 ρ ⊕ = 1.40 ± 0.06 g cm −3 ; this is indicative of a Neptune-like composition. Its transits exhibit large (> 1 hr) timing variations characteristic of an outer perturber in the system. We performed a global analysis of the high-resolution radial-velocity measurements, the photometric data, and the TTVs, and inferred that TOI-2015 hosts a second planet, TOI-2015 c, in a non-transiting configuration. Our analysis places it near a 5:3 resonance with an orbital period of P c = 5.583 days and a mass of M p = 8.91 -0.40 +0.38 M ⊕ . The dynamical configuration of TOI-2015 b and TOI-2015 c can be used to constrain the system’s planetary formation and migration history. Based on the mass-radius composition models, TOI-2015 b is a water-rich or rocky planet with a hydrogen-helium envelope. Moreover, TOI-2015 b has a high transmission-spectroscopic metric (TSM=149), making it a favorable target for future transmission spectroscopic observations with the JWST to constrain the atmospheric composition of the planet. Such observations would also help to break the degeneracies in theoretical models of the planet’s interior structure.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".