Long-term impacts of global temperature stabilization and overshoot on exploited marine species
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Global warming alters ocean conditions, which can have dramatic consequences for marine species. Yet, the centennial-scale effects and reversibility of habitat viability for marine species, particularly those that are important to fisheries, remain uncertain. Using the Aerobic Growth Index, we quantify the impacts of warming and deoxygenation on the contemporary habitat volume of 46 exploited marine species in novel temperature stabilization and overshoot simulations until 2500. We demonstrate that only around half of the simulated loss of contemporary (1995–2014) habitat volume is realized when warming levels are first reached. Moreover, in an overshoot scenario peaking at 2 °C global warming before stabilizing at 1.5 °C, the maximum decrease in contemporary habitat volume occurs more than 150 years post-peak warming. Species' adaptation may strongly mitigate impacts depending on adaptation rate and pressure. According to our study, marine species will be affected for centuries after temperature stabilization and overshoot, with impacts surpassing those during the transient warming phase.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".