A novel integrated framework to identify and characterize regional-scale pest insect dispersal
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Forest pest insects cause major socio-economic impacts, global losses of millions of dollars, and ecosystem changes. A key challenge for their management is tracing regional dispersal events critical to outbreak dynamics. We developed an integrated tracing framework for pest insects by combining isotope geolocation, ecological data, and atmospheric modeling, and applied this framework to the eastern spruce budworm moth ( Choristoneura fumiferana ), the most severe defoliator of the North American boreal forest, to trace outbreak dispersal events. We first generated a North American model of bioavailable sulfur isotope ( δ 34 S) variation in space (isoscape), which predominantly varied in response to oceanic sulfate deposition, and then calibrated it to spruce budworm tissues of known origin. We used an automated trap network with high temporal resolution to collect samples and identify potential immigration events of eastern spruce budworm to Nova Scotia, Canada. We traced the natal origin of these immigrants by integrating high-probability regions derived from δ 34 S probabilistic assignments and HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersal models. Since high larval density is a strong predictor of budworm defoliation and emigration, HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersal models, which integrated spruce budworm behavioral constraints (e.g., flight velocity, altitude, and temperature thresholds), were started from defoliated areas to narrow-down the area of natal origin and estimate the migration route. We find that this integrated framework allows to narrow down the region of pest origins, restricting it to a few possible locations and demonstrating long-distance dispersal of spruce budworm across ~400Km over the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Our framework demonstrates the utility of δ 34 S geolocation in insect tracing, and that combining isotopic data with ecological indicators and atmospheric modeling offers an unprecedented resolution in understanding insect dispersal ecology. The approach is transferable to trace other migratory insect species to address conservation, agriculture, and bio-surveillance needs in the context of global environmental change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".