Impact of starvation-induced mortality on the collapse and lack of recovery of American plaice on the Newfoundland Grand Banks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Natural mortality is a population process that commonly varies over time for marine species but is notoriously difficult to estimate within stock assessment models. Starvation-induced mortality rates for temperate fish may be identifiable via tracking fluctuations in body condition, which is a proxy of energy reserves. Here, we investigate if starvation mortality is an important part of the recent, elevated natural mortality rates for the American plaice population on the Newfoundland Grand Banks. Using a spatiotemporal weight-at-length model, we found that American plaice body condition has varied across lengths, space, years, and months. This model identified that declines in condition have been large enough to produce important starvation-induced mortality. The estimated starvation-induced mortality index was correlated with independent estimates of juvenile natural mortality and accounted for much of the process error when integrated into a state-space age-structured assessment model. If the sustained high natural mortality rates that we estimated in recent years persist in the short- to medium-term future, then recovery of American plaice on the Newfoundland Grand Banks during this time-period is unlikely.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".