A short-term predictive model for disease progression in acute-on-chronic liver failure: integrating spectral CT extracellular liver volume and clinical characteristics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a life-threatening hepatic syndrome. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a comprehensive model combining extracellular liver volume derived from spectral CT (ECVIC−liver) and sarcopenia, for the early prediction of short-term (90-day) disease progression in ACLF. A retrospective cohort of 126 ACLF patients who underwent hepatic spectral CT scans was included. According to the Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) criteria, patients were divided into the progression group (n = 70) and the stable group (n = 56). ECVIC−liver was measured on the equilibrium period (EP) images of spectral CT, and L3-SMI was measured on unenhanced CT images, with sarcopenia assessed. A comprehensive model was developed by combining independent predictors. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). In the univariate analysis, BMI, WBC, PLT, PTA, L3-SMI, IC-EP, Z-EP, K140-EP, NIC-EP, ECVIC−liver, and Sarcopenia demonstrated associations with disease progression status at 90 days in ACLF patients. In multivariate logistic regression, white blood cell count (WBC) (OR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.02–1.40; P = 0.026), ECVIC−liver (OR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.15–1.40; P < 0.001), sarcopenia (OR = 4.15, 95% CI: 1.43–12.01; P = 0.009), MELD-Na score (OR = 1.06, 95%CI: 1.01–1.13;P = 0.042), and CLIF-SOFA score (OR = 1.37, 95%CI:1.15–1.64; P<0.001) emerged as independent risk factors for ACLF progression. The combined model exhibited superior predictive performance (AUCs = 0.910, sensitivity = 80.4%, specificity = 90.0%, PPV = 0.865, NPV = 0.851) compared to CLIF-SOFA, MELD-Na, MELD and CTP scores(both P < 0.001). Calibration curves and DCA confirmed the high clinical utility of the combined model. Patients without sarcopenia and/or with a lower ECVIC−liver have a better prognosis, and the integration of WBC, ECVIC−liver, Sarcopenia, CLIF-SOFA and MELD-Na scores in a composite model offers a concise and effective tool for predicting disease progression in ACLF patients. Not Applicable.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".