Advanced machine learning for regional potato yield prediction: analysis of essential drivers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Localized yield prediction is critical for farmers and policymakers, supporting sustainability, food security, and climate change adaptation. This research evaluates machine learning models, including Random Forest and Gradient Boosting, for predicting crop yields. These models can be adapted for in-season yield forecasting, providing predictions as early as one month before harvest. The study applied models to postal code-level yield data from 1982 to 2016, incorporating daily climate data, agroclimatic indices, soil parameters, and earth observation NDVI data for Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values identified temperature variables and NDVI as significant predictors. The study highlighted rainfall and soil water retention’s importance for irrigation strategies. Random Forest achieved an RMSE of 0.011 (t/ac), 0.6 (t/ac) less than the best linear regression model. This precision translates to $81,600 CAD per farm annually in PEI, supporting economic and environmental benefits through improved planning and land management.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".