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A 10,000-year lake-sediment based reconstruction of precipitation isotope values in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

2025· article· en· W4408259323 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Zachary C. Wagner, Byron A. Steinman, Matthew S. Finkenbinder, Mark B. Abbott, Nathan D. Stansell

Bibliographic record

VenueQuaternary Science Reviews · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicGeology and Paleoclimatology Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersNational Science Foundation
KeywordsSedimentGeologyPrecipitationHydrology (agriculture)OceanographyPhysical geographyGeomorphologyGeographyMeteorologyGeotechnical engineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

We present a 10,000-year carbonate oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) record from Shark Lake, Alberta, (50.8411°N, 115.3983°W; 1,857 m above sea level) that provides insight on past changes in precipitation seasonality, regional hydroclimate dynamics and atmospheric circulation. Shark Lake has a hydrologically open configuration, with water isotope values that mirror annual mean precipitation, and contains a continuous sediment sequence consisting largely of authigenic carbonate minerals precipitated from the water column. The sediment δ 18 O record exhibits a shift from lower to higher-than-average δ 18 O values from the middle to late Holocene circa 4,100 calendar years before present (yr BP). This transition generally aligns with hypothesized transformations in atmospheric circulation that ostensibly led to reduced winter precipitation in northwestern North America and heightened aridity in the southwest during the late Holocene. Monte Carlo cross-correlation analysis demonstrates that other precipitation δ 18 O records from the Pacific Northwest have a significant positive correlation with the Shark Lake record, in contrast with records from the southern Rocky Mountains and central/eastern North America, which have a negative correlation with the Shark Lake record and others from the Northwest. We apply the previously established strong relationship between atmospheric circulation associated with the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) and precipitation isotope values across North America to explain the marked coherency in precipitation δ 18 O reconstructions. Collectively, the paleo-records suggest a middle to late Holocene transition in the mean state of atmospheric circulation over North America from one similar to the negative phase of the PNA to one comparable to the positive PNA phase, in response to non-linear changes in ocean-atmosphere circulation driven by ice sheet decay and insolation forcing. This shift had substantial impacts on the source and isotopic composition of air masses traversing the continent and their interplay with circulation from the Gulf of Mexico as well as the seasonal amount and distributions of precipitation. Our results underscore the need for additional isotope-enabled climate model simulations and additional δ 18 O records, especially from understudied regions across North America, for a comprehensive view of seasonal-scale hydroclimate variations and synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation pattern changes over the Holocene. • 10,000-year δ 18 O record from Shark Lake reveals past hydroclimate changes. • δ 18 O records from across North America exhibit strong, significant correlations. • Northwestern δ 18 O records are anticorrelated with those from central/eastern regions. • A shift from negative to positive PNA-like circulation occurred in the mid-Holocene. • Air mass source and the amount and seasonal distribution of precipitation were impacted.

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How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.596
Threshold uncertainty score0.998

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0040.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.031
GPT teacher head0.293
Teacher spread0.262 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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