International Market Demand for California Raisins: A Time Series Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study focuses on the export demand for California-grown raisins from the world's largest importers: Japan, China, Germany, and Canada. It aims to estimate the price cointegration relationship between California's wholesale price and how export demand changes transmit to the local market and impact farm-level economic returns.  It uses local raisin’s quarterly wholesale prices from 2012 to 2024, and the international trading prices from USDA Global Agriculture Trade System (GATS) data sets from the same periods. Our results show that the prices of the last two quarters suggest the upcoming quarter's supply and demand situation in the local market. It reveals that California's local raisins wholesale market is integrated into the world's raisins trading, especially with the large trading partners of Japan, Germany, and Canada. Additionally, the VAR model and the data used in this study do not support a longer-run price cointegration among selected countries and between California's wholesale market and these destination countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".