NDMI-Derived Field-Scale Soil Moisture Prediction Using ERA5 and LSTM for Precision Agriculture
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate soil moisture prediction is fundamental to precision agriculture, facilitating optimal irrigation scheduling, efficient water resource allocation, and enhanced crop productivity. This study employs a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning model, integrated with high-resolution ERA5 remote sensing data, to improve soil moisture estimation at the field scale. Soil moisture dynamics were analyzed across six commercial potato production sites in Quebec—Goulet, DBolduc, PBolduc, BNiquet, Lalancette, and Gou-new—over a five-year period. The model exhibited high predictive accuracy, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.991 to 0.998 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values reaching 0.996, indicating strong agreement between observed and predicted soil moisture variability. The Willmott index (WI) exceeded 0.995, reinforcing the model’s reliability. The integration of NDMI assessments further validated the predictions, demonstrating a strong correlation between NDMI values and LSTM-based soil moisture estimates. These findings confirm the effectiveness of deep learning in capturing spatiotemporal variations in soil moisture, underscoring the potential of AI-driven models for real-time soil moisture monitoring and irrigation optimization. This research study provides a scientifically robust framework for enhancing data-driven agricultural water management, promoting sustainable irrigation practices, and improving resilience to soil moisture variability in agricultural systems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".