Pareto-optimal peer-to-peer risk sharing with robust distortion risk measures
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We study Pareto optimality in a decentralized peer-to-peer risk-sharing market where agents’ preferences are represented by robust distortion risk measures that are not necessarily convex. We obtain a characterization of Pareto-optimal allocations of the aggregate risk in the market, and we show that the shape of the allocations depends primarily on each agent’s assessment of the tail of the aggregate risk. We quantify the latter via an index of probabilistic risk aversion, and we illustrate our results using concrete examples of popular families of distortion functions. As an application of our results, we revisit the market for flood risk insurance in the United States. We present the decentralized risk sharing arrangement as an alternative to the current centralized market structure, and we characterize the optimal allocations in a numerical study with historical flood data. We conclude with an in-depth discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of a decentralized insurance scheme in this setting.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.015 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".